While the media are already doing victory laps over what they want the public to believe is Hillary Clinton’s triumphal march to the White House, they are ignoring some uncomfortable facts that point to an opposite result. The after-action report will be so obvious that analysts will look back and ask themselves how they missed this prediction so badly.
The answer will be…“Because they wanted to.”
The media have always been against Republican presidential candidates. They are more transparent in their opposition to Donald Trump because he is a much stronger communicator in live events, on television and online. Consequently, they have had to abandon any pretense of impartiality to defeat him. This extends to the misleading polling results. If you listen to them, you could be discouraged from even voting, and that is exactly their intent. There is one problem.
Trump is winning.
Here are some critical data points that you are unlikely to hear about in the mainstream press:
#1. The Democrat Party’s swing to the extreme left has been fueled by its power to influence the black vote. Most of the media’s polling predictions are based on a high turnout of the black community in 2016, similar to that which occurred in 2008 and 2012. But that is not happening. Obama understandably inspired the black community to turn out in record numbers when he was on the ticket. This year, the black turnout will be lower. The early voting turnout is already off by double digit percentages in predominantly black voting districts.
There is also a very real possibility that Trump will carry a higher percentage of the black vote than the media project, or previous GOP candidates have achieved. For starters, he is the first GOP presidential candidate to actually ask for their vote with a plausible plan and a strong closing argument, which said, in effect, that after 50-60 years of failure by the Democrat Party in running inner city black communities with terrible schools, crime and economics, what have you got to lose?
Think about this: Both Obamas are actively campaigning to get out the vote for Hillary. This is unusual for a sitting president, but Obama knows that Trump’s election will undo everything he has done.
#2. The aforementioned black community is not the only one lacking enthusiasm for Hillary. Many millennials feel betrayed—rightly so—by the Democrat party, by Hillary and by Bernie Sanders (I-VT). They are learning about this online via the WikiLeaks revelations. The mainstream media have surrounded WikiLeaks with a wall of silence, but the data is leaking out in social media. The results are not good. And millennials are not the only ones who have been betrayed. Those in the Hispanic community who heard the “needy Latino” comment see the same things the black community sees. Trump will out-perform the predictors here too.
#3. The flip side of the enthusiasm coin is great news for Trump’s chances to win. Actions do indeed speak louder than words. Early voting is not normally a GOP strong suit. However, we are seeing massive increases in early voting during this election cycle in counties where Trump is expected to win. This is more likely to be a predictor of enthusiasm instead of operational expertise by the GOP.
Also, Trump’s campaign has fueled a record number of small donors. These metrics number in the hundreds of thousands and millions—far larger than the small number of people surveyed by the media to predict voting. Over 500,000 people have attended Trump’s events since July, compared to a total of 25,000 at Hillary’s rallies during the same time period. His primary tally was 14 million and his donor pool was 2.6 million.
Actions speak louder than words and millions of people speak louder than a few hundred people surveyed by the media. While the media are manipulating the polling data to get the results they want, i.e., the appearance that Hillary is winning, they can’t manipulate the actions people are taking. That is why they are endlessly repeating the data they can manipulate and ignoring the actions they cannot.
#4. The most important metric is from Gallup. More than two-thirds of American news consumers do not trust the mainstream media. But Trump does not depend on their interpretation of his message. He is a newsmaker, so he simply gets on TV and communicates directly to the people, not just through anchors and reporters, who are prejudiced against him and portray him negatively.
The media cannot stop giving him the time, because he is news, and news creates ratings, and ratings create the advertising revenue that the cable news channels desperately need. Trump wins by never missing an opportunity to get on TV and communicate his message. When he is not on TV the media portray him negatively, but since most Americans do not believe the mainstream press anyway, they can either protest the biased news coverage or ignore it.
A word on how Trump communicates is necessary. Many criticize his style. But campaigning is marketing and sales. People buy for emotional reasons and justify it with logic. Trump appeals to emotion and then to reason. When you hear his message—trust me—he knows exactly what he is doing. So far it is working. The more you hear the media complain, the more you know it is working. Ask yourself, who are they talking about? It is Trump. No publicity is bad publicity.
#5. The media polls are wrong and have been wrong for several election cycles. The reason is simple. The media are okay with them being wrong. They were wrong in Maryland when they missed the gubernatorial election by over 14%. Otherwise, they would have had to predict a Republican win in 2014. They wanted to help the Democrat, so under-reporting for a Republican candidate is part of their playbook.
#6. There are polls that indicate Trump is ahead. The Rasmussen poll has him two percent ahead and the Los Angeles Times poll has him tied. A tie goes the house in Las Vegas. In this year’s election cycle it goes to Trump because many people like Trump but are embarrassed to say so. In the privacy of the election booth, voters can finally tell the truth.
#7. Hillary is a failure. She falls severely short of the qualities and achievements you want in a presidential candidate. She is a basketful of unhealthy, low energy hiding from the press, a poor speaker with deplorable mannerisms, totally dishonest, and has a lifelong history of doing or saying anything to get elected. In an election cycle where “Throw the bums out” has become a rallying cry for change, she embodies everything people dislike about politicians with nothing they like or love. The prospect of four more joyless years with Hillary at the helm, after Obama’s eight years of radical transformation, is so depressing that the American people will take Trump, warts and all.