No Democrat considering a running for president received more than 9 percent support in a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Only two – Joe Biden and the recently announced Kamala Harris – received more than 5 percent.
More than half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents did not name any candidate they support. But, according to the Post, Donald Trump is in trouble as the 2020 presidential campaign kicks off.
“Amid new signs of danger for President Trump’s re-election hopes, the opposition race to replace him is wide open, with most Democratic voters not able to name their favorite candidate,” the Post’s Michael Scherer and Scott Clement wrote in “Democrats’ 2020 presidential contest is wide open as danger mounts for Trump, new Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows.”
“The lack of commitment on the Democratic side comes as Trump appears vulnerable to defeat in a 2020 general election, and perhaps even to a challenge from within the Republican Party.”
This despite the fact the Republican National Committee voted unanimously this week at its winter meeting in New Mexico to give its “undivided support” to Trump’s re-election bid and that several states are discussing canceling their caucuses to clear the way for the president.
Only two Republicans have even publicly discussed challenging the president in the primaries – former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, whom Trump crushed in 2016, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who is little known outside of his primarily Democrat state.
The Post claimed 56 percent “of all Americans say they would ‘definitely not vote for him’ should Trump become the Republican nominee, while 14 percent say they would consider voting for him and 28 percent would definitely vote for him. Majorities of independents (59 percent), women (64 percent) and suburbanites (56 percent) ruled out supporting Trump for a second term.”
This compared to President Obama who, in October 2011, had up to 46 percent saying they would not vote for him under any circumstances only to win re-election in 2012 with 51 percent of the popular vote.
The Post says 75 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents approve of Trump’s performance, but nearly a third say they would like to nominate someone else for president in 2020.
The show of unity and force by the Republican National Committee was not a sign of strength, the Post reported.
“Concerns over Trump’s re-election prospects were one of the reasons the Republican National Committee voted unanimously Friday for a resolution of ‘undivided support’ for Trump and his presidency,” Scherer and Clement wrote.
The committee stopped short of endorsing Trump’s re-election for legal reasons, the Post wrote. But “that did not stop Trump from falsely tweeting Saturday that the committee had voted ‘to support me in the upcoming 2020 Election.’”
This new sense of vulnerability on the part of Trump’s re-election hopes is belied by a number of factors.
Trump had a 49 percent approval rating in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll – the only daily presidential tracking poll now operating – when the shutdown began on Dec. 22. It had gotten as high as 51 percent in late November and had hovered in the high-40s most of December.
It did go down some after the shutdown began, reaching a low of 43 on Jan. 14-16. But it rebounded the next day and has reached 45 again. Even his right direction-wrong track polling has improved in recent weeks and appears headed back up.
The Post also claimed Trump would have a problem with women voters. They were 11 percent more likely in its poll to say Democrats should nominate the candidate with the best chance of beating the president. This reflects “their continuing animosity toward the president. Almost two-thirds of all women said they definitely would not vote for Trump, compared with 48 percent of men.”
Yet a Fox News poll in December found 93 percent of Republican women support Trump – 8 percent more than among men.