Despite the praise and euphoria from the Democratic Party about the party’s electoral victories in the 2019 elections, the mainstream media ignored an important component of presidential elections: minority votes.
NBC News published an analysis warning the Democratic Party of overlooking the black vote in the 2020 presidential election due to lackluster voting from black Americans in the 2019 elections. The analysis, entitled, “Democratic wins come with a warning sign: Low African American voter turnout,” was penned by Dave Wasserman, an NBC News contributor and the House editor for The Cook Political Report. Wasserman has experience in analyzing electoral data and is considered to be non-partisan in his analysis.
Wasserman pointed out that Democratic Party’s electoral victories came in “largely white, middle-to-upper income suburbs,” but not in minority-heavy areas. For example, incumbent Kentucky Republican Governor Matt Bevin lost the northern Kentucky suburbs outside of Cincinnati, Ohio by a single percentage point. Bevin previously won that area, Kenton County, by eighteen percentage points in his 2015 election.
The Deep South painted a worrisome picture for get-out-the-vote efforts for the Democratic Party among the black community. In Mississippi’s election, where Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves beat Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood by six percentage points. Wasserman said, “Plain and simple, African American turnout there was weaker than expected — and that should serve as a warning to Democrats elsewhere.” He added that Hood, a white Democrat, “failed to mobilize Mississippi’s black voters” in his campaign to beat Reeves for the gubernatorial election.
The analysis warned that this could be problematic, if repeated, in other races in the South. For example, Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards, a white Democrat, faces a tough re-election bid against Republican Eddie Rispone next week.
Extending the same tune to a national level, Wasserman said that the Democratic Party must figure out a way to drive up black voter enthusiasm to Obama-era levels to beat President Donald Trump. Wasserman noted that black voters “are a robust share of the electorate” in swing states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
As much as the mainstream media hyped this week’s electoral victories, it should pay attention to Wasserman’s analysis and warnings about taking the black vote for granted. However, none of this was highlighted in any of the post-election analyses outside of Wasserman’s analysis for NBC News.