CNN’s latest poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, continued to highlight the confusion surrounding the primaries to determine the Democratic Party 2020 presidential nominee. The nominee will face off against incumbent President Donald Trump, but many questions remained on which current primary candidate will be able to unseat Trump in the 2020 election.
The CNN poll found likely New Hampshire primary voters prefer Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former vice president Joe Biden. Sanders was ahead 21 percent to Warren’s 18 percent and Biden’s 15 percent in the recent poll. CNN noted that Biden’s support in their polling has fallen since July, a drop of 9 percentage points and that the recent poll’s numbers fall within the “margin of sampling error.” Meaning, there is no clear-cut front-runner in New Hampshire’s primary, which is the first primary of the 2020 election cycle.
CNN found some silver linings for Biden’s campaign, although their main article focused on Biden’s polling regression since July and how the campaign has been stagnant since the summer.
Biden remained the top vote-getter among older likely voters, having 22 percent of likely voters over the age 50 prefer him over the other candidates. He was also more favored by moderate and conservative voters with 20% support. Warren and Sanders were backed by the state’s more liberal likely voters. Yet Biden is ahead of all other candidates on the question of electability in the general election at 36 percent.
Although CNN attempted to portray their recent poll as bad news for Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, upon further analysis, it was not true. Biden’s anticipated best-performing primaries were not in the northeastern United States, which is where Sanders and Warren should expect to do well.
It was reasonable to expect Biden being in a close primary race in New Hampshire as it is not his home state nor is the constituency ideologically close to Biden’s typically moderate supporters. Also, Biden led in important categories, such as moderate and conservative voters and electability, despite CNN’s insistence that it did not matter.