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Russia and Iran – Energy Rules
Guest Column | By KT McFarland | August 21, 2008
All of a sudden it’s a
dangerous world out there. Russia
is reclaiming its former empire and Iran is ramping up its nuclear
weapons program and supporting terrorists. At first glance these two seem
unrelated, but they’re actually different chapters in the same book, entitled
“Energy Rules.”
It’s an epic saga that began
decades ago, in the 1970s.
After the 1973 Yom Kippur
war, the oil-producing Arab world realized it could band together and use its
exports as a weapon to punish the West for supporting Israel. It
slowed the oil pumps, constricted supply, drove up the price of oil and thus
gasoline, and Americans stood in line at the gas pumps. Suddenly,
oil-exporting countries were rich and their ambitions grew.
Iran used its petrodollars to build a formidable military
arsenal under the Shah and later, under the Ayatollah, waged a 10-year war with
Iraq.
Other Gulf countries built their military arsenals, acquired portfolios and
their princes lived like playboys.
Although most people aren’t
aware of it, the Soviet Union was also a major
oil exporter. It used the 1970s oil windfall profits to build up its nuclear
and conventional weapons arsenals and conduct an aggressive and expansionist
foreign policy. It solidified control of satellite states in Eastern Europe,
and became a full-fledged superpower, playing out U.S. –Soviet Cold war competition
in the third world.
But oil, like most
commodities, is governed by a cyclical wave of price increases and decreases.
By the mid 1980s oil prices collapsed, going from a high of nearly $40 a barrel
in 1980 to $10 by 1986.
Suddenly, those petro-powers
were petro-paupers, especially the Soviet Union.
Already overextended from its military buildup, domestic consumer demands and a
protracted Afghan war, the Soviet Union nearly
collapsed when oil prices plummeted. Ronald Reagan seized the moment to achieve
America’s
Cold War victory. The lesson? Oil is a weapon – but it is a double-edged sword.
An oil exporting country can translate its wealth into political power when oil
prices are high; but when prices fall that power evaporates.
Now, with the price of oil
bouncing around above $100 a barrel, the petro-powers are once again flush with
cash. Iran
is reasserting itself in the Gulf, building a nuclear weapons capability and
funding Hezbollah and Hamas. Saudi Arabia’s
support of madrassas continues and has spawned a generation of Islamic
extremists, currently headquartered in the tribal region on the Afghan-Pakistan
border but with designs on Pakistan.
The Russians learned the
lesson of the 1980s perhaps best of all, and have spent the last decade laying
the groundwork for their comeback. They built oil pipelines to carry Russian
oil to the Mediterranean for export. They
convinced the Europeans that Russian gas was a more reliable energy source than
Arab oil and built natural gas pipelines to East and West
Europe. They’ve hampered the energy rich nations of Central Asia
from competing in Europe by impeding their
pipeline efforts. In recent years they’ve built up their financial reserves and
their military.
Now, with the price of oil
once again at historic highs, and the Europeans dependent on their gas and oil,
the Russians are ready to reclaim their Empire. In the winter of 2006 Russia turned off the gas to Ukraine for three days, leaving Ukrainians shivering
in the dark, and demonstrating to the rest of Europe
that they were just as vulnerable. Last week Russia
turned to Georgia
- democratic, progressive, and pro-West - as the perfect place to drive the
point home. Poised to become the energy corridor from Central Asia to the West,
Georgia was hoping for full
integration with Europe, including NATO
membership.
This was something new Russia could
not tolerate. At the first flimsy pretext Soviet tanks rolled into Georgia and no amount of cajoling by the United States
is likely to force them out. The Europeans will be loath to object - Russia now has
most of them in an energy stranglehold. And as long as Russia can
exercise its veto at the Security Council, the United Nations will be unable to
act.
The United States and Europe
have spent the last 20 years with ours heads in the sand. After the oil crisis
of the 1970s, we should have pushed for energy independence, by whatever means.
We are now in a position where a major cornerstone of our economy is dictated
from abroad. Unless the U.S.
and Europe become energy independent, the
Russians can convert their energy domination into both wealth and political
power.
The last chapter of this book
depends on us. Americans are the most entrepreneurial and innovative people the
world has ever known. We can create a whole new green energy industry to take
the place of foreign oil and break the stranglehold of countries that wish us
ill. We should try everything – wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, shale oil,
off-shore drilling, new refineries, electric hybrid and flex fuel cars –
and without delay.
If America can achieve energy
independence, this story will have a happy ending. If not, those who wish us
ill – the Russians, the Iranians, the Taliban - will write the last chapter
however they choose.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor KT McFarland is a former top Pentagon official in the Reagan Administration and a frequent television and radio commentator on national security issues and foreign affairs.
Guest columns do not necessarily reflect the views of Accuracy in Media or its staff.
2 Comments | Post a Comment
Instead I would try to analyse seriously about why today we are being hated all around the Globe!!
August 21 at 4:19 pm | #1 | Link
KT,
I have long admired your thoughts, ideas and opinions from afar, and am delighted that you are now contributing to AIM!
You are indeed correct about as to the “who” with regard to the American story. The only way Washington will ever do the right thing on this (as well as other issues) is to have Constitutional amendments for:
A “Line-Item Veto” for the President, and
“Term Limits” for Congress, and perhaps SCOTUS as well.
While both are internal issues and not “foreign relations” related, I think the problems of the past 30 years stem from elected officials turning out to being career politicians, caring less for the national interest, in favor of “bringing home the bacon” to their constituents, which has developed into a vicious cycle of tax and spending, in the terms of the late, great Milton Friedman, “other people, spending other peoples’ money.” Until this is resolved, we cannot depend on Washington to focus properly and squarely on the issue of dependence on foreign oil and it’s potential for disaster for our civilization. You are right, though. Thank you!!!