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Hezbollah’s Beirut Blitz
Guest Column | By Walid Phares | May 12, 2008
As
many among us have warned several times over the past year, and many
articles later, Hezbollah has indeed waged its expected blitzkrieg
against the democratically elected Government of Lebanon. Within 24
hours, the pro-Iranian super-militia blocked all accesses to the Beirut
International Airport, established an exclusive security zone around
the organization's headquarters in south Beirut, deployed its forces
into several Sunni neighborhoods in the capital and erected check
points across the country. Within 48 hours or more the "Party of Allah"
may be in control of large areas of the Lebanese Republic. In short,
this could mutate into a slow motion coup d'Etat. What's behind the
blitz?
The big picture was very predictable. The Syro-Iranian
"axis" which is flaring up various battlefields in the region, from
Basra to Gaza, has instructed its local "force" on the Lebanese
battlefield to surge against the pro-Western Government of Fuad
Seniora. Hezbollah is a disciplined Iranian asset on the Eastern
Mediterranean. All of the arguments advanced by its secretary general
Hassan Nasrallah in his last press conference and grievances against
the Government have always been raised since the summer of 2005. These
criticisms of the cabinet are invoked when a large scale action is
ordered by the Tehran strategists. The local "issues" are part of the
greater puzzle, but in Lebanese politics, they seem to be "the" issues
at hand. What are they?
Back in September 2004, a UNSCR 1559
asked all militias, including Hezbollah, to disarm and for Syria to
pull out from Lebanon. The "axis" responded with a string of
assassinations against Lebanese critics. An attempt against Minister
Marwan Hamade in the fall of 2005 was followed by an earth shaking
massacre of the former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and his assistants
and friends in February 2005. A Cedars Revolution followed with one
million and a half people taking the streets to demand the departure of
the Syrians and the disarming of Hezbollah. Assad pulled out his troops
in April of that year leaving the "second army" behind, Hezbollah. As
of July 2005 a series of murders targeted Lebanese anti-Hezbollah
politicians
This state-within-the-state receives more than $300
million annually to maintain its socio-economic dominance among Shiia
Lebanese. In addition it receives loads of advanced weapons, including
rockets and missiles. In July of 2006 Hezbollah triggered a War with
Israel to dodge its disarming at the hands of the Lebanese Government.
By November the group staged an occupation of downtown Beirut, to
paralyze Lebanon's economy. In 2007 the assassinations of lawmakers
resumed. In November of that year, Hezbollah and its allies blocked the
election of a new President for Lebanon, to avert the selection by the
majority in parliament of a leader who would actually call on the UN to
disarm the militia. But as of winter 2008, a master plan was devised to
overrun strategic assets of the Government, including the International
Airport. Swiftly, the Pasdaran-trained operatives installed
surveillance cameras on the tarmacs and obtained sensitive security
information from the commanding officer of the airport, a Shiia whose
allegiance has been gone to Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Government
finally reacted by asking Hezbollah to remove the cameras, and begin
the dismantling of the parallel telephone communications system. In
addition, the Government ordered the Airport commanding officer to join
his headquarters at the Defense Ministry. In 24 hours, the "Hezb's"
secretary general Hassan Nasrallah reacted and launched his phased
coup. In his press conference he declared war against the Government
and accused it of being an "agent of the Americans." Few hours after,
Hezbollah's Special Forces and snipers tightened their grip around the
Airport and moved into Sunni West Beirut. They seized the strategically
located neighborhood of Ra's al Nabaa overlooking both (Christian and
Muslim) sides of the capital, fought their way into Hamra Street and
practically controlled more than 90% of West Beirut. By midnight, half
a million Lebanese Sunni, Druze and Christians found themselves under
an Iranian-sponsored "occupation."
Across the former green
line, the Christian sectors of the capital remained outside the control
of Hezbollah, with hundreds of armed youth taking position on the roof
tops of buildings. Will Nasrallah order an invasion of East Beirut or
will he ask his "Christian" puppets to do the job for him? In the Shuf
Mountains, south of Beirut, the anti Syrian Druzes are strategically
besieged. The Syrian-Iranian axis has already prepared a special task
force with Druze figureheads ready for the man hunt: The March 14th
Coalition seems to be physically targeted for elimination, unless a
third force protects it. Where is the Lebanese Army? Well, its
commander General Michel Sleimane made sure his units would not side
with the Lebanese Government of Seniora in its struggle against
Hezbollah. This was called "neutrality." That would be the equivalent
of the U.S forces not intervening if a gigantic militia emerges in
America and surrounds the White House, the U.S Congress and all federal
buildings. Unreal in a democracy but very real in a country where the
influence of Syria and Iran have not been reduced by the mere rise of
the Cedars Revolution. And that is precisely what Washington's foreign
policy architects weren't able to comprehend.
Within the
Beltway, lots of analyzing on both sides of the Potomac: What can the
U.S do to respond to the Syro-Iranian offensive which is obliterating a
young democracy so dear to the speech writers of the President and many
congressional leaders from both parties? A crushing defeat to democracy
in Lebanon under the eyes of an American public eager to see advances
in the War on terror will be devastating. U.S warships are patrolling
the international waters along the Lebanese coasts. A 10,000 strong
UNIFIL force is deployed inside southern Lebanon. But what can this
deployment of force do to deter Hezbollah's determination? Many had
advised the U.S Government years ago to implement gradual steps to
contain Hezbollah in Lebanon, before this drama would unfold. But it
was the Lebanese politicians who failed to call for rescue. The
precious four years since the issuing of UNSCR 1559 have now expired
and the Government of Fuad Seniora is on the verge of collapse or
reduction. What can the coalition of the willing to-save-Lebanon do at
this point?
It can still do few things. First would be to
invoke Chapter 7 at the UN Security Council. Let the international body
decide on this matter. Meanwhile go to plan "B" and extend all support
possible to a democratically elected Government in jeopardy. The
international community has still significant allies inside the
country. An overwhelming sector of the public with most of the Sunnis,
Christians and Druze plus a minority among Shia, two thirds of the
Lebanese Army, a majority in Parliament, backed by millions in the
Diaspora. On the ground, Hezbollah has thousands of fighters but it has
never experienced "occupying" other Lebanese communities. The
Iranian-backed organization may be tempted to eliminate other Lebanese
leaders, Druze, Sunnis and Christians but that would put Nasrallah and
his assistants on an international list for war crimes. The next few
hours and days are crucial in Lebanon. An interim compromise may also
emerge. But as the Roman adage goes, "Alea Iacta Est," the dice has
already rolled. Hezbollah is not a "resistance" anymore; ironically, by
now it is an occupier of its own country.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Dr. Walid Phares is the author of Future Jihad and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, DC.
Guest columns do not necessarily reflect the views of Accuracy in Media or its staff.
2 Comments | Post a Comment
Great article, very insightful. No one in our government has the guts (or other fortitude) to do anything. The U.N. will issue a strong protest; and the world keeps in a downward spiral.
May 13 at 3:07 pm | #1 | Link
Great review and analysis of the events in Lebanon and Beirut. One can hope that the U.S. Media would at some point decide to actually and accurately report the truth about international events.