Once again I will focus on the “presumed” front-runners of the two major political organizations.

You may or may not agree with those whom I have chosen for this honor or even the criteria by which they were chosen. I use a compilation of Internet surveys (polls) conducted by reputable pollsters such as Gallup, Zogby, Survey USA, Rasmussen and Marist etc. In addition I frequently scan newspapers, newsletters and magazines. I also read many Internet sites devoted to political information and/or discussion. In all my research I do my best to avoid blatantly biased opinion and use verified facts in order that I can present as true a picture as possible.

Before I get into the parties and the respective candidates, I thought I would share what I believe to be some interesting, albeit little known information with you that is easily found while scanning the Net.

The Federal Election Commission says that in the first four months of 2007 the two (2) major parties have reported raising $120 Million. The Republican’s raised $61.2 Million and spent $46.5 Million while their Democrat counterparts raised $59.4 Million and spent $36.5 Million. You ask: Is this important? You bet it is! When compared to the same period in 2003, the last Presidential Election, the Republicans show a DECREASE of 21% in donations and the Democrats show a 126% INCREASE in donated monies.

The Rasmussen Reports have determined in a national telephone survey of 15,000 people that the number of people willing to identify themselves as Republicans has dropped from 37.3% during the 2004 mid-term elections to 30.8% in May 2007. The number of Democrats categorizing themselves as part of the Nancy Pelosi/Harry Reid Party has decreased from a 2006 high of 38% to a current 36%!

A CBS/New York Times survey of 269 Republican voters nationwide said that 38% were satisfied with the candidates for President while a whopping 57% wanted better choices. When the same question was posed to 488 Democrat voters, 63% said they were satisfied with the field as proposed and 35% wanted different choices.

It appears that many more people are watching the debates on TV than ever before. A Pew Research Center poll in taken in May 2007 showed that 22% of Americans were following the debates and Presidential campaigns closely. Compare that with the reported 8% who were really interested in 2003 and 11% in 1999. What is the reason? It seems that those polled said that the Iraq War, Healthcare costs and immigration were the major factors. The real question is, will the same, greater or lesser interest be evident in of November 2008? Only time will tell.

REPUBLICAN FRONT-RUNNERS!

For the sake of this article, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney will be considered the front-runners.  However, I can’t give proper perspective without adding Fred Thompson (who recently opened an exploratory committee) and Newt Gingrich (who has said he will not declare until November 6th but certainly appears to be campaigning) to the mix as they do dramatically impact the point numbers for the other three. The other Republican hopefuls appear to be just that, in everybody’s eyes except their own and those of their small circle of supporters.

Rudy Giuliani, leading in the polls from almost day one, has pulled out from the Iowa straw poll this coming August. John McCain has followed his lead and done likewise. The popular thought seems to be that Giuliani would have shown badly due to his liberal stand on abortion and gay rights, so in order to save face and funds, he elected to withdraw. If McCain had remained, he had nothing to gain, because his target is Giuliani. Since Giuliani pulled out, McCain would have done nothing but spend time and money. This actually gives Romney a chance to improve his fortunes as well as one of those running in the second tier (for a short time anyway). What will Thompson and Gingrich do? The smart thing would be to write off Iowa, while hitting New Hampshire hard. It would save money and save face. Thompson has all but declared, which will hurt Gingrich the longer he waits. Thompson is gaining because he is the Conservative that the three front-runners are not. It seems to me that while Thompson is sitting in a precarious position between third and fourth in most polls, once he declares his numbers will shoot up dramatically.

One thing that should help – yes, I said help – John McCain is the fact that the immigration bill appears to be off the table for awhile at least and it has been said by some that no further action will be taken until after the election, except for the nagging fact that President Bush is convinced that the immigration bill is necessary and has vowed to pursue it. McCain has taken a real beating because of his stance on immigration and the Kennedy-McCain bill, in addition to his backing of campaign finance reform. Now that it may be gone, he should fare better if he can ignore it and if the President as well as his opponents let it die. We must recall that Giuliani was not in favor of the bill and was the first candidate to say that any immigration bill he would support must address security first. Clearly, that is what the public wants.

The last debate, held one week ago, in my opinion, was more polished, avoiding the personal attacks of the previous debate. This could possibly be due to the softball questioning by Wolf Blitzer. The three top tier candidates all supported Bush and his policies on Iraq. I saw an interesting comment somewhere on the Web regarding the election debate. I do not recall what site or who made the statement, so please take it for what it is worth. It went something like:

After the debate was over, the clear winner was Fred Thompson!

In a Rasmussen poll of 637 Republican voters dated June 5th (the latest I could find at this date) they showed:
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Fred Thompson 17%
Mitt Romney 15%
John McCain 14%

The interesting thing is that the gainers over the positions 60 days ago were Romney and Thompson. Romney gained 7% and Thompson racked up an additional 2%. It must be remembered that Thompson has NOT yet formally declared.

I believe that Fred Thompson is where he is because the Republicans (as stated in the beginning paragraphs of this article) are disappointed with the choices they have and Fred is in the right place at the right time. He is a strong Conservative who has shown a consistent positive record on Conservative issues like gun owners rights, abortion and tax cuts. It’s a record that the top tier candidates can’t begin to match. He has a voice inflection that grabs people’s attention and because of his appearances on the long running T.V show, Law and Order, playing the District Attorney, he has instant face/name recognition among voters.

While some commentators point out that Thompson’s Senate tenure of 8 years was less than stellar, he is a charming, believable and smart man who is short on experience. Those that point this out seem to forget, and include, that Thompson, with his 8 years in the Senate, has more experience in a “nationally elected office” than Obama, Clinton or Edwards at this date!

It appears that Thompson will be a driving force in the quest for the Republican nomination whether he is chosen OR he divides voters and thus forces a third, possibly weaker candidates to get the nomination. Then again, IF he does not get the nomination, the winner may, because of Thompson’s obvious popularity, pick him as a running mate.

DEMOCRAT FRONT-RUNNERS!

I will look at the Democrat primary contenders in the same way as I did the Republicans. The three that are considered the front-runners are Clinton, Obama and Edwards. If there is a “spoiler” or another candidate waiting in the wings for the Democrats that may matter, it’s Al Gore! We will discuss this at greater length further down in this article.

The following is a prime example of why I use the number of sources that I do, especially in polling results:

On June 4th Rasmussen released a poll that showed:
Clinton 34%
Obama 26%
Edwards 15%

These numbers are exactly the same as they were on March 3rd 2007. There were minor fluctuations during the 90 days between those dates.

On June 3rd USA Today/Gallup released a poll that showed a marked difference.
Clinton 37%
Obama 36%
Edwards 13%

I then looked at the numbers from 9 others polling sources that I use and totaled them together and averaged them out. I came up with the following:
Clinton 39.888%
Obama 25.88%
Edwards 15.2%

The average spread was 14% and the overall error margin was 4.3%.

Looking back 60 days ago at the positions of the three candidates, I determined that they have only differed slightly over that period and going back 90 days the numbers were exactly the same as they were on June 4th.

Using the averages as shown above, I believe, represents a more realistic picture of the current standing of these three candidates. I chose to treat the second tier candidates the same as I did with the opposition and basically all but ignoring them in this discussion.

Every one of the three top candidates is trying to get as much publicity and raise as much money as possible and they have some unique ways of doing it.

Barack Obama has enlisted the aid of Colin Powell as an advisor on foreign affairs. He has also had his wife, Michelle, do more campaign appearances that are geared toward making Barack sound more like a normal husband and family man. She complains that he leaves his socks and clothing lying around and doesn’t do dishes etc. He has a campaign going on the Net that if you contribute any amount of money over $5.00 your name will go into a pool and 4 will be chosen to have dinner with Barack. I have heard mention that this is a “lottery” and may actually be illegal in many states.

John Edwards has picked up Danny Glover, the actor, as a campaign spokesman to help put the energy back in his rural America fight against poverty. He plans expenditures of $1 billion to finance healthcare improvements, loans for college educations, assist small business development. Glover stated that “this is what Edwards’s campaign is all about – helping people! Edwards is also saying that $5 billion should be spent to educate children around the world and improve living conditions through economic development and the elimination of disease. He said that he would create a cabinet-level position to help that agenda if elected.

The part which Edwards hasn’t explained regarding this, is that he plans to raise taxes to fund these initiatives.  For example,  recent polls show Edwards sliding to a 10.08 %, or into 4th place position. That is 7 points behind Al Gore who says he is not running and 24 points behind the leader Hillary Clinton. A good portion of Edwards’ decline is due to the backlash for the wealthy life he now has as a successful trial lawyer with a $13 million home and $400.00 haircuts, while he preaches about the evils of poverty to his supporters. Recently, Edwards categorized the War on Terror as merely “A bumper sticker slogan” and said that he did not believe that there even was a real global war on terror. The two front-runners have acknowledged that they believe the global war on terror to be real. Edwards has a unique way of soliciting campaign contributions also. I received an email; purportedly from Edwards’ mother, Bobbie, asking for a donation of $6.10 before 06/10/2007 (John Edwards’ Birthday). This was for the purpose of raising $610,000.00 for his campaign! The donors would receive his mother’s recipe for pecan pie. With fundraising ideas like this,  I would have to say that John Edwards has a lot of work to do, if he intends to get the nomination next February.

Al Gore has repeatedly stated that he is not a candidate for President in 2008. However, he has not entirely ruled it out, either. His new book is out and he is making as many book signings as candidates are making campaign appearances. While Gore is doing that, he is gathering thousands of names of potential supporters. NewsMax reports that Democratic insiders have said that if Gore jumps in as late as October, he will have enough time to raise needed cash. His face/name recognition is already there and his celebrity has been constantly on the increase. He is up for a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to gain support for the war against global warming. NewsMax also said that if he gets the Nobel Peace Prize, he is certain to be a candidate.

Last but certainly not least is Hillary Clinton, since 2002 the Democrat favored to win the nomination and the election. Of that, we will see but she is still the leader of the pack. The recent poll showed that she was 10% points ahead of Obama and 24 % points ahead of Edwards. Sometimes I think that Hillary is her own greatest threat. She has an undying need for attention, a need to be number one and when that is threatened, she does something stupid that turns people off. In this campaign, she dropped “Rodham” from her name, as she did in Arkansas after her husband Bill lost his re-election attempt. After she dropped “Rodham,” her husband won another term as Governor of Arkansas.

The African-American vote that helped push husband Bill into the White House, is not a sure thing for Hillary, this time, with Obama in the race. There also seems to be a lingering question concerning the women’s vote. She is not held in high esteem with the female population of the United States. The shenanigans in the White House both during and after the Clinton occupation of that residence still cast a cloud over Hillary.

Lastly, it is frequently evident that Hillary has a problem with the truth. Her reasons for voting in favor of the Iraq War have changed numerous times since 2003. On top of those lies, she freely admits that she did not read the 90 page National Intelligence Report that she was given before the vote. Now, she is claiming that Bush lied! In 2003, she said that we have to be committed, that her vote was “the right vote” and that she stood by her vote! Then in 2005 during her trip to Iraq, she said that she opposed a date certain for withdrawal or a timetable on the war. Several weeks ago at the debate she asserted, “This is Bush’s War.” “He mismanaged the War.” “He is responsible.” Hillary is again shifting the responsibility. She is as responsible as anyone is. Without the Congressional vote, there would be no war and she was a yes-voting Senator. Her celebrity status and instant name/face recognition is an asset.

It is still a long way to nomination but I think Hillary will survive unless some extraordinary scandal becomes known and knocks her out of the box.

The original article can be found at http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/

 

Guest columns do not necessarily reflect the views of Accuracy in Media or its staff.

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