Shortly after Democrats took office last January, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) vowed the Senate would pass climate change legislation before the start of the international climate talks in Copenhagen.

But less than a month before the eyes of the world turn to Denmark, it’s clear that there’s no chance a bill will get through the Senate by then — a domestic policy failure that leaves the U.S. with a weakened hand as it seeks to negotiate a global warming treaty with the rest of the world.

At a climate meeting with world leaders in Singapore over the weekend, President Barack Obama expressed support for drafting a limited, short-term political agreement at Copenhagen instead of a legally binding treaty.

“It was unrealistic to expect a full, legally binding international agreement to be reached between now and when Copenhagen starts in 22 days,” said Michael Froman, deputy national security adviser for economic affairs.

Top administration officials say that U.S. negotiators are unable to commit to any “hard and fast” agreements without having a bill through the Senate. And if the U.S. delegation did make any strong commitments on climate change, that could further jeopardize the chances of the Senate passing the legislation early next year.

“It’s pretty clear that if they agreed to lots of things or made a big deal, that the backlash in the Senate would be astounding,” said William Moomaw, a professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University.

The legislation already faces a steep climb through the Senate, regardless of what happens in Copenhagen. Progress has slowed since the House moved quickly to pass a bill last June, as high unemployment numbers and fierce debate over health care reform have pushed the environmental agenda to the back burner.

And lawmakers from coal and manufacturing-heavy states aren’t happy that more liberal Democrats are using the Copenhagen negotiations to ratchet up pressure to move the bill forward.

“I’m totally unconcerned about Copenhagen,” said Sen. John Rockefeller (D-W.Va.). “I’m concerned about West Virginia.”

Some of the top foreign policy experts in Congress admit the United States is heading into the climate conference with a weak hand.

“The discussion in preparation for Copenhagen is clearly softened by the fact that most of our constituencies — in fact, most of our colleagues — want to talk about something else and that makes it more difficult to do something tremendously dramatic,” said Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.).

And some would-be Copenhagen attendees are already saying they’ll stay behind in Washington to work on bigger priorities if they have to.

“I’m going to Copenhagen unless there are votes here,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). Health care “is clearly my top priority, but climate change we’re trying to obviously prepare at the same time.”

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and other U.N. officials expect the Copenhagen talks to result in little more than a political agreement signed by world leaders — not the legally binding treaty to cut emissions they had once hoped to see.

The inability of U.S. negotiators to make firm promises about emissions reductions, international funding and other policy issues has made everyone else involved in the conference lower their expectations.

Coming fresh off a sweeping Democrat victory last November Senate Majority Leader and the White House felt confident that passing a climate change bill was all but guaranteed.  then they ran into the headwinds of a poor economy and questions about the cost of the reforms to both the public and business.

The inability to pass the bill in the Senate this year means that it is probably dead until after the 2010 elections or even longer depending on the results next November.

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