Even so called “free” web sites are really paid content according to one industry expert.

From AdAge

For a moment last week, it seemed like paid content was really on the march. Rupert Murdoch announced his intention to charge for every News Corp. news site. DirecTV, the second-largest pay-TV provider, was found in talks to launch a web-video service — for its paying subscribers. And a comprehensive new forecast reported that consumers were spending less time with media that’s heavily subsidized by advertising — and more with media they pay for.

“No longer are newspaper- and magazine-subscription purchases and network prime-time viewing the norm,” said John Suhler, president and general partner at Veronis Suhler Stevenson, the private-equity firm that authored the forecast. “Instead they are declining and consumers are spending more time with media which they support and pay for, as opposed to ad-supported media. This development is a culmination of two decades of this secular shift towards consumer-controlled media and shows no signs of slowing.”

Newspapers’ print circulation is expected to fall from about $10 billion this year to something more than $8 billion in 2013. Consumer magazines, which typically offer readers cheap subscriptions and rely on advertisers for most of their profitable revenue, got about $9.8 billion in circulation revenue last year, Veronis Suhler said. That figure will be $9.7 billion in 2013. Meanwhile, subscribers spent about $55 billion on basic pay TV last year, but will be paying $72 billion by 2013. And video games and internet access will continue to grow as well.

But while it’s clear that paid content’s campaign will advance, it’s also apparent it will not deliver spoils for everyone.

For one thing, Veronis Suhler considers every website that you call free — The New York Times, People.com or TMZ for example — to be paid media. That’s because Veronis Suhler looks at what people pay to access a particular medium, not where those dollars actually go. Web-access revenue may climb from $17 billion last year to $21 billion in 2013, as Veronis Suhler forecasts, but that money isn’t reaching The Times, People or TMZ.

Newspapers have little choice but to charge for their content as the print model fades.  But they are doomed to fail unless they can convince the public that their content is worth paying for.  If it’s not exclusive it will be hard to charge readers for it.

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