We are being inundated by polls and pundits, so who will win the election?

From the DC Examiner.

With only eight days until the election, experts still disagree as to what the outcome will be.  Although most polls show Barack Obama leading, political scientist James Campbell from SUNY Buffalo believes John McCain will be our next president. Speaking on a panel at the National Press
Club Monday, he said that, historically, the leader in the polls
following labor day has won 13 of 15 presidential elections, and McCain
was up in early September.

Not so fast, said Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. Abramowitz said Campbell “took the poll at the
only time” McCain happened to be ahead, following his “convention
bump.”

Michael Lewis-Beck from University of Iowa agreed, but warned of something he calls “The
Bermuda Triangle of Danger”: “Anytime a nominee gets 50-51 percent of
the popular vote, they lose the electoral vote,” he explained.

Although
they may disagree when it comes to predictions, all stated that the
financial crisis was this year’s  “October Surprise”—but in
September.

Obama has been able to succesfully pin the financial crisis on the GOP, but if voters think he will be able to solve this problem with a Democratic congress and his spread the wealth philosphy then they will be greatly disappointed.

 

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